Gilbert Arenas; former Top Five fantasy pick and injury-prone superstar... What are the denizens of the Fantasy Basketball Universe to do about you now?
Agent Zero missed two seasons of NBA play (well played in 15 games, but they didn't really count, sort of.) and in the process burned the Washington Wizards, its fans, and many fantasy owners who were counting on him to carry their make-believe teams to glorious victory.
A few knee operations and lots of rehabilitation progress later, we fantasy drafters (and potential Arenas owners) are now being tempted with the possibility that he is capable of coming up with a comeback season.
Reports from the Wizards' camp and around the interwebs are pointing to his encouraging progress and his motivation for a successful campaign with the Washington franchise this 2009-10 season.
How good a fantasy asset can he be? For that, we will have to take a look at his last, healthy (relatively) season. In the 2006-07 season, Gilbert managed to play 74 games and he averaged: 28.5 PPG; 4.6 RPG; 6.0 APG; 2.8 3PPG; 41.8 FG%; 84.4 FT%; 1.9 SPG; 0.2 BPG; 3.2 TO
It was that impressive stat line that had him projected as a top five pick for fantasy in the 07-08 season. Many managers were counting on his back-to-back, 80 game attendance record from 2004 through 2006 as a basis to thinking that he could deliver the goods that year. Sadly, his injury had other plans.
We can look at a repeat of that as the "best-possible" scenario for him this season. The other side of that coin, of course, is a complete meltdown and another 60+ missed games.
From an ultra-conservative perspective, drafters should probably opt to pass on him this season and let someone else take the risk/gamble. There's always next year.
For some this may be too much. Reports are, as I said, encouraging; then why wait? When else will we get a shot at a player who can provide first-round value in the third or fourth round?
I've participated in about 24 assorted 12-man and 14-man mock drafts since Yahoo opened its Mock Draft Lobby doors.
To address the issue of Gilbert's value and fantasy potential (un)functionality. I tried to see when is it best to draft him, with what strategy and with which players to draft him with.
In the Four Fingers of Fantasy draft guide, we have him ranked at 40. Yahoo, on the other hand, has him currently O-ranked at 31. At 40, he is in the early fourth round range. While at 31, he is projected to be drafted somewhere in the middle of the third round. I tried to grab him in the fourth round in my various mocks, which is actually where I see his value properly mitigating his risk, but no dice. He never reached that spot.
For those of you who DO want to gamble on him this season, I recommend that you might as well grab him early in the third round. The fact that you are even considering him, means that you are of the outlook that he WILL outperform his third-round draft value. So you probably won't have any qualms with picking him over other injury-prone blokes like Kevin Martin or Gerald Wallace.
Why early third? Well this is because you have the security of having one of the top five picks in the first round to back you up as insurance. Think about it. If you drafted LeBron in the first, picked a solid player in the second, then your team could probably survive picking a locked out referee in the third and still contend. That is, of course, assuming your remaining picks in the draft are solid too. Arenas should probably play more games this season than Tim Donaghy will officiate, so you're team probably do better than you are preparing for.
LeBron + X is better equipped to take on an "arenas risk" than say, Roy + Billups or a Gasol + Calderon.
I've drafted Gilbert in the third round twice. I went LBJ + Iguodala + Arenas in one team counting on Gil to boost treys; while I went Granger + Nash + Arenas in another counting on him to boost steals. In both cases, I went the small-ball route and over drafted steals, treys, and assists; merely counting on Arenas to have a solid season as gravy.
All in all, I believe that's the best advice I can give at this point with regards to When and How to draft Arenas this season.
Draft him in the head-to-head format.
Go small-ball. He won't likely be shooting great FG%.
Pick him IF you drafted a Top Five value player in the first round.
Over draft the cats you hope he will deliver... just in case...
Make him your ONLY injury-risk player on your team. Well at least as much as possible. One is already a lot to handle, especially considering he's a third-round pick.
So for those of you who are convinced that you want him this season, here's his Top 10 plays from the 06-07 season to boost your confidence.
Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites
Great article, Erik. Really enjoy the site. I've been targeting Arenas in the late third/early fourth too, and am mainly coming up short. But like you said, I don't want to overpay. I actually just did a piece on my site about Agent 0 too (and his effect on Butler, Jamison) with several references back to here. Feel free to let me know what you think. Thanks...
Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.
Advertisers
The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.
Bloggers Wanted
The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site.. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.
The Bloguin Login
The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!
Gilbert Arenas; former Top Five fantasy pick and injury-prone superstar... What are the denizens of the Fantasy Basketball Universe to do about you now?
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics. 
The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.
The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site.. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.
The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account! 