As I was working on my Top 20 Centers for Fantasy 2009-10 for  Sports Grumblings, where I ranked Dwight Howard as the top center, I had to deal with the question: "When would I draft Dwight Howard?"

The answer I came up with was simple: "It depends."

"Depends on what?", you might ask. Well in the end it depends on the fantasy basketball format of the league you are considering drafting him for. Are you drafting for rotisserie (roto) or head-to-head (h2h)?

Here's a quote from an old piece I did highlighting the differences between Roto and H2H:

"The stats generated in the categories your team produces have different effective values when comparing the 2 formats.

In rotisserie, each category generates points for your team based on your comparative totals relative to the totals generated by the other teams. For example, in a 12-man league, if your team has the most assists you then get 12 points in the assist category. While if you have the least rebounds, your team only gets 1 point. It’s the total of the points your team generates across all 9 categories that determine who wins in your league. Hence, it is advised to form as balanced a team as possible.

In head to head, each category your team beats its opponent in is worth 1 notch in the win column. Conversely, cats you lose in, give you a notch in the loss column. In the event of a tie between teams, you both get a point in the draw column. Towards the end of the season, the teams with the best win-loss records advance into the playoffs – similar to the NBA."

Dwight Howard's 59.4 FT% at 10.8 attempts per game will drag your roto team's average in that category into the gutter. That's 12 points you're potentially giving up right then and there. In my opinion that's too punishing to merit him a first-round pick nomination. You probably shouldn't consider touching him until the late-second through third rounds, at the earliest.

Amar'e Stoudemire, who I ranked at #2, is probably your best bet as your first option for filling your center position in Roto. He has a well-rounded stat line and has gives you good quality free-throw-shooting from the center position.

On the other hand, Howard is simply the most wicked anchor for a head-to-head team's rebounds (13.8) and blocks (2.9) categories. If you ascribed to the H2H philosophy that it is OK to punt a category here and there, then consider the fact if you filtered out FT% and TOs and kept the remaining seven categories Dwight is ranked as the fourth best player for fantasy based on last season's averages. That should be enough to consider him as a legitimate ninth to twelfth pick in the first round.

Image credits: bettorsedge.wordpress.com and interbasket.net via flckr

---

Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites

Comments (11)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

...
written by dnylkiller, September 20, 2009

Hey Eric, I love reading points in the paint and am always stoked when you have fresh posts. Keep up the great work. I have had Dwight in my 15 team, keeper roto league for the last 3 years. i got hammered the first two seasons but managed to hold first for most of last year before slipping down to 3rd in the final few weeks. I had Wade, Dwight, Oden, T-mac and Josh Howard as my keepers and the Wade/Dwight combo helped me be dominant in 7 cats while getting a 1 and 2 in FT and TO's. I finished 3rd overall, being only a half point out of 2nd and 4 points out of 1st. The draft starts @ pick 76 and I used my first three rounds to draft guards Jason Terry, Mike Bibby and Ronnie Brewer. Then used two 4th round picks I has traded for (124 and 126) to take Jeff Green and JR Smith and filled out my back end with promising rookies (Gordon, Chalmers) and bigs I knew I could eventually spot start (Blatche, Pryzbilla) My FT% finished at 72% while second last was 76%, not an inconceivable deficit. However, I was never less than 80 blocks ahead of second place in that cat. this year i've acquired Wade, Dwight, Oden, Green and Kidd as my keepers and will apply the same strategy in the draft this year. Just an FYI about my experiences in roto with D-12. Any plans for how your going to go about roto'ing with Dwighty?

• 
• +1
• 
• 

@dnykiller
written by Points in the Paint, September 20, 2009

Thanks for following the site! From my discussions with some other people, I am leaning towards tanking the free throws and adding small guy numbers to complement Dwight's big man stats. A Joakim Noah pick later on in the draft is probably all I will need (in a deep league) to lock down the biggie #s. I've been talking to Patrick over at GMTR and he's currently crunching out some stats and strategy to make D-12 roto-viable. Thanks for sharing!

• 
• +0
• 
• 

double dang
written by DanielKiller, September 22, 2009

Dang. I was hoping you were going to somehow try and combat FT%.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Chay, September 24, 2009

To combat Dwight's low FT% you have to draft plenty of high FT attempt, high FT% guys I believe.

Just the math part talking.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Compensating
written by Points in the Paint, September 24, 2009

The issue I have with attempts to compensate for Dwight's FT% is that the bulk of high-vloume, good free-throw shooters are found in the first three rounds. You will need something along the lines of a Kobe-Durant-Harris base just to offset Dwight's volume of missed shots from the line.

That poses to be a challenge in the sense that you, as a drafter, will be focusing on ONE category just to take advantage of Dwight's array. As opposed to going heavy on small guys to up 3s, assists and steals to round out your team. The problem is that the "assist guys" are low-volume shooters from the stripe.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by DanielKiller, September 26, 2009

If you could get Dirk/Dwight/Martin in the first three that wouldn't be such a bad start

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Re...
written by Points in the Paint, September 27, 2009

Dirk and Kevin are a good start indeed. They look like the most "doable" combination to start a compensation campaign. Their attempts and percentages, when averaged with Dwight's, comes out to around 76.9%. That's about mid-range FT% still. 78.9% should be competitive, but middle range is reasonable. The bigger question I have about the combo is whether or not Kev-Mart can log enough games to matter in the compensation mix.

Points, FG%, and rebounds are still solid at this point, but you will still have to grab assists and steals; which at this point the team is still sorely lacking.

Without a tier one or tier two PG, you will most likely have to try to battle out assists "by committee" and that's three or so roster slots right there.
A flexible and versatile F will be important as well.

We might have to settle for a Joakim Noah in the late rounds to round out boards and blocks and fill out the second C spot.

So the shor answer is YES, compensation for Howard's FT% is workable, but it will end up at the expense of being competitive in other categories like say, TOs.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by dnylkiller, September 28, 2009

Yah, compensating and drafting for FT% doesn't strike me as particularly fun. I want to see someone else do it, rather than try it myself.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Now to H2H
written by Chay, September 29, 2009

As a Dwight Howard fan.
Is it still possible to get him and go small ball?
I mean going for small ball with a splash of one of Dwight's strengths.
Small Ball - Rebs
Small Ball - Blks
Small Ball - TO's

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Re: Now to H2H
written by Points in the Paint, September 29, 2009

FYI, TOs are not one of Dwight's strengths.

Next, I feel it's a waste to use up your first or second round pick on a guy whose stat array doesn't really support or strengthen categories that your strategy should be focusing on.

I would prefer to get a tier one or two PG in his stead. For example, if I was poised to reach for Dwight in the late part of the first round,I would be better suited to reach for Deron Williams instead.

It's not the same as trying to build a big-ball team around Wade, LeBron, or Dirk from the early first round.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by dnylkiller, September 29, 2009

that GMTR article really sums it up nicely

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

Add Comment