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By Brian Hillegas via flickr.com
As I have always done in the past, I decided to take some time to reflect on what I learned from being part of the team of bloggers that crafted the Four Fingers of Fantasy 2009 Fantasy Basketball Draft. No this is not one of those advertisement or marketing posts that's on just to promote the damn thing. Really.
One of the reasons I started this blog was to be able to take some other people along with me as I journey throught the eight fold path on my way to Fantasy Basketball Nirvana.
"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest." - Confucius
"Knowing others is wisdom, knowing yourself is enlightenment."- Lao Tzu
"Each of us is here for a brief sojourn; for what purpose he knows not, though he senses it. But without deeper reflection one knows from daily life that one exists for other people." - Albert Einstein
It was a great, brain-draining, and thoroughly fulfilling exercise for me. In the process of working with five other guys who really know their fantasy hoops, I couldn't help but learn a little thing or two or three or more.
The Diversity of Points of View Makes Fantasy Such a Wonderful Game
It was a fun read to see how different experts have different outlooks regarding different players. Josh Smith (F, Atlanta Hawks) had his moment in our discussions. Josh is one of those players who is infamously known for being "drafted too early in most drafts". Half of one of our too lengthy email threads was devoted to discussing our outlook for this guy in the upcoming season. It was a two-on-one situation in favor of Josh having a "bounce back" year. The other expert was pointing out, in an all too reality-checking manner, how the trend over the past two years the stud has shown a trend of decline. I decided to take a more middle ground view. I now personally prefer to draft him somewhere in the late 3rd round to early 4th.
WTF is Mid-Ball Strategy?
I authored 4 of the 5 head to head draft strategies in the guide. I got more than a few emails and instant messages last year asking me to explain to them what mid-ball was. At the time, I could not explain it to a level that met my satisfaction. So before we got our writing assignments in order, I explicitly requested that someone else pick-up the ball on that strategy. Nels of GMTR, was kind enough to show me the light.
So to all you guys who asked me what Mid-Ball is; I can now, thanks to Nels' guide, answer that in a way that is easy to digest and understand.
Without giving away too much, here's how I would explain what Mid-Ball is to a ten-year old fantasy addict: "Mid-ball, son, is basically what happens when you set out to draft Small-ball; but basically forget to draft guards for the first six rounds of the draft." Another way to visualize the strategy can actually be simply put in two words - Larry Bird.
Age Before Beauty
No matter how much a lot of pundits like to diss on aging and "over the hill" players, experts will still prefer to pick old fogeys over rookies. This is not an umbrella maxim, but in the end the experience and historical data that oldies bring to the table help sway most experienced drafters into favoring them.
Yeah so oldies like Kidd, Billups, TD, and Iverson (when he finally signs) may still get draft day lovin'. At the appropriate rounds, of course. Dikembe Mutombo (1966), currently the oldest active NBA player, probably not so much. Especially since he is considering retirement. Again.
Matt Satten of Barkley's Mouth, one my colleagues and collaborators at the guide, pointed it out all too poignantly as we were hammering out our rankings and projections that too many experts are too hard on rookies. Are we? To a certain extent, we are.
Here are the rookies I've decided I wouldn't mind rolling the dice with on Draft Day (at the right rounds, of course):
- Blake Griffin
- Tyreke Evans
- Jonny Flynn
- Stephen Curry
- James Harden
The Dwight Howard Project
A comment Dennis Velasco, of Barkley's Mouth, made while we were prepping to do our mock draft, "I draft the same way in Roto and H2H." kicked off some interesting conversations in google talk. I've been a strong proponent for different rankings and strategies for drafting in those two formats, but I am always open to different points of view. The guy, after all, did win last season's GMTR 20-man Monster League and has been playing fantasy basketball since before NBA players stopped bothering to wear those really "short" shorts. So RESPECT.
I see D-Ho as a first rounder in H2H, while many many spots lower in roto. It's that gawd awful FT% (and attempts) you see.While Dennis or DV or Bish as I fondly like to call him on our trashy and smacky chats, likes to go with the flow in drafts and doesn't see Dwight as a first ronder per se in H2H. Yeah, we're tight like that. See how much love can be built just by working on a guide together? Sorry. I did say RESPECT. Luv ya DV!
And so I am now tempted to bridge the gap between his genius and mine and am considering to undertake what I call the "The Dwight Howard Project" where I will try to win a Rotisserie format league with Dwight as a relatively ultra-early pick. Now THAT is going to be a challenge indeed. Either one of these quotes should apply in that fantasy hoops exercise:
A. "What does not kill me, makes me stronger." - Nietzche
OR
B. "That which does not kill me, probably hurts like hell."
My Favorites List
Working on and reading all of those player rankings, projections, and write-ups helped me organize a list of players that I am excited to draft/own for next season. Here are some not-too-early rounders who are part of that list:
- Rajon Rondo
- Wilson Chandler
- Andrea Bargnani
- Derrick Rose
- Emeka Okafor
- Mario Chalmers
- John Salmons
- Charlie Villanueva
- Mike Dunleavy Jr.
That was just to name a few.I can't really name ALL of my faves, right? That's just in case we see each other in a league this season.
Well that's pretty much what I managed to take home as bonuses from my experience. While not all of the thoughts may have been as cohesive I would have wanted them to come out to be, I hope some the insights I got shed some slivers of illumination into your own fantasy basketball musings.
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