Shaq to Cavs: Fantasy Breakdown

Written by Erik

Friday, 26 June 2009 20:04

The NBA draft is over and we saw some major deals move some big names around. There were a couple of draft surprises and a few draft disappointments as well. I want to throw in a few opinions regarding some of the player movement that took place just prior to the draft and on draft day itself, and of course I will be tossing in my two cents on their impact on fantasy basketball.

The Arms Race Has Begun!

We are seeing some NBA title contenders trying to boost their roster with the hopes that their adjustments will be just what the team needs in order to take it all the way to its ultimate goal, an NBA Championship. Major moves have been made by key Playoff contending teams such as the Cavaliers, Spurs, and Magic. We'll be doing a trade by trade breakdown and analyze some of the player movement involved. Let's get a quick and early look as to how these moves by real life teams will be affecting the game of fantasy basketball and our upcoming fantasy draft.

Let's start with one of the bigger moves this month.

The Cleveland Cavaliers acquired Shaquille O'Neal from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for the Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic just before draft day. The Phoenix Suns appear adamant to clear up salary cap space; not only to avoid the luxury tax monster, but most likely to prepare to transition towards a clearer direction for the future. Finances are really a legitimate moving force when it comes to these trades and moves. Phoenix will not be the last team to move around players based on making adjustments for cap space this offseason.

shaq-lebron

OPINIONS:

To me, this is a sign that the Cavs have officially pressed the panic button. They are in desperation mode in terms of finding a way to secure LeBron in the long term. What's their solution? It's a short term potential fix at best. The team direly needed some beefly presence in the middle just to be able to compete with the likes of Dwight Howard. So they get a former "most dominating center in the NBA." On paper, this seems to properly address their needs. Shaq may just be the kind of help LeBron needs to get himself that elusive championship ring. In the end, it's not what's about what's "on paper,"the proof will definitely be in the pudding. This is especially going to be the case when it's all about wooing a Superstar who is looking for his franchise to deliver results in assisting him in achieving his goals.

Shaq may not have that many years left in his NBA-playing tank, but he may have just enough to help LeBron get his ring. This is what makes the deal come out looking like a short term move.
Bottom-line for the success of this move boils down to how healthy Shaq can stay throughout the regular season and in the Playoffs. This will also be a key factor in terms of how the Cavs players will work out this fantasy season.
Having a solid back-up center in Zydrunas Ilgauskas, will be good for Shaq as his minutes can be kept to a minimum for the team to get their regular season Ws.
Actually playing alongside a young, motivated and exciting player like LeBron might just rejuvenate Shaq into bringing just the right amount of "Shaq" to the table night in and night out. - Remember what pairing up with Wade did? On the flipside of the coin, that was two years ago. There's only so much rejuvenation an aging player whose body has undergone further wear and tear can muster.
This trade clarifies the direction the Phoenix Suns are headed going into the season. Cost cutting is a priority, but they will be planning to juggle their financial books with their desires of returning into the echelon of playoff contending teams in the western conference. We'll just have to wait and see what Steve Kerr has up his sleeve.
We might have actually seen the last of Ben Wallace last season. A contract buyout is entirely possible here.
With no true PF left, the Cavs will want to secure Varejao ASAP.
Acquiring Shaq makes the Cavaliers a more well rounded team. They still lack the depth necessary to make a solidly deep push into the Playoffs. Expect a few minor moves by the team sometime in the season.
Amare's recovery from last season's eye injury will be even more important for the Suns than ever. He will presumably return as the starting center. Ben Wallace will still have to be assessed if he has properly recovered from his assorted injuries from last season, to see if he can be an on-court asset for Phoenix.

FANTASY BREAKDOWN:

LeBron James - As far as fantasy is concerned, it IS a good thing that Shaq is no longer as good as he once was. His presence in the Cavs will not really bite into LBJ's fantasy production. We can expect more of those "triple-double-flirting," and actual triple double games from him. If you want to be a stickler for answers and numbers, then I would have to say there might be a slight dip in the rebounds category and a slight bump in the assists category as far as the King's line is concerned. Happy? I AM!
Shaquille O'Neal - Are you worried that he no longer has Steve Nash to drop him those sweet dimes? What are you expecting? - that his 60% field goal will, what, drop to 57%? Let's not forget that Shaq historically, has really been known for his awesome FG%. It is more a function of how he plays as a player as opposed to being about who he is playing alongside. LeBron is the best passing swing in the NBA. His style of play has proved to benefit the Cavs' front court bigs. He'll get his dimes, while Shaq will get his easy looks as the opposing defense collapses on Bron when he decides to slash to the hoop. Expect 16 or so PPG, 9 RPG, 1.5 BPG accompanied by his usual 60 FG% and 50-ish FT%. The health situation is even better for Shaq now that he is in Cleveland. They have a still-serviceable reliever in Z. This will allow the coaching staff to safely manage Shaq's minutes on the court during the regular season. 27 to 28 minutes out of the Diesel should work out great for this late middle draft round center target.
Amare Stoudemire - He should get a slight bump on your draft radars. Be careful and remain vigilant over the progress of the recovery of his eye injury before you go off declaring him as first round material once again. Assuming his eye heals well in time for training camp, he just might end up being a steal in the latter parts of the first round; as we should be able to expect the "good Amare" to be playing. All of this, of course, means absolutely zilch if he leaves the Suns. They're still under renovation and it's frankly too early to make a definitive decision on where he should be targeted.
Anderson Varejao - Securing his services will be a priority for the Cavs. He should benefit with playing alongside Shaq, in terms of learning from him; but his numbers should be expected to suffer a bit in spite of his having less competition for minutes in the 4 spot. You can gamble on drafting him in the late rounds. He should still be there.
The rest of the Cavs - All things should be roughly the same, statistically speaking, for Mo Williams and Delonte West. Shaq's presence will not get Mo to pass more - LeBron will be doing that. Mo will still shoot his 3's and West will still be solid with his perimeter D. The loss of Sasha Pavlovic throws a bit of a bone as far as minutes are concerned for Wallyworld and Boobie. I won't expect huge improvements on their performances though. The biggest fantasy loser from the franchise has to be Big Z. He's now relegated to being "Shaq relief" from the bench. His minutes will suffer and terribly so. Expect him to only make a fantasy comeback in the event that Shaq misses sometime due to injury.
The rest of the Phoenix Suns - Let's wait and see what other moves the franchise will be making (yes, there will be more) before we waste precious neuron function and my keyboard-tapping, finger exercises.